EMARKETER forecast US affiliate marketing spending of $13.81 billion in 2026, an 11.3% increase from its $12.42 billion estimate for 2025. Its April 28, 2026 FAQ cites the September 2025 forecast. These are forecast figures, not a confirmed full-year spending result.
Spending and attributed sales are different measures
The same FAQ cites a separate forecast of $241.03 billion in affiliate-attributed US retail ecommerce sales for 2026. That sales figure is not affiliate marketing spending, profit or incremental revenue. Keep the geography, year and metric beside each number when using it in a budget presentation.
Use market growth as context
A growing channel can be worth evaluating, but an industry forecast cannot tell you what your own program will earn. Build a plan using expected approved orders, commission expense, platform and service costs, returns and customer economics. Compare those assumptions with actual results as the program develops.
Measure the return your business needs
Define whether your return calculation uses revenue, gross profit or contribution margin, and list the costs included. A ratio based only on sales and commission expense answers a different question from one that includes operating costs. This article does not establish a universal $12 return for every dollar spent, and the earlier unsupported claim has been removed.
Separate attribution from incremental growth
An attributed order is an order credited under your tracking rules. To assess whether the program created additional demand, use an appropriate experiment or another credible counterfactual. Choose partner recruitment and commission changes around evidence from your own business rather than assuming a market forecast proves your program’s incrementality.